Medicare Part D Premiums could rise an average of 50% in 2027 for beneficiaries who keep their current stand-alone prescription drug plans, according to KFF research published October 30.
KFF estimates average monthly premiums would increase from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027—a difference of $17 monthly, or $204 annually. This is a conditional projection, not an increase that every Medicare beneficiary will experience. With open enrollment ending December 7, reviewing coverage could prevent unnecessary spending.
Key Highlights
- Projected premium: $51 monthly in 2027 versus $34 in 2026.
- Potential increases: 10.4 million unsubsidized enrollees could pay more if they stay.
- Large changes: 2.4 million could face increases exceeding $50 monthly.
- Deadline: December 7, 2026; new coverage begins January 1.
Medicare Part D Premiums: Key Figures
| Measure | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| KFF average monthly premium | $34 | $51 |
| Maximum standard deductible | $615 | $700 |
| Part D out-of-pocket threshold | $2,100 | $2,400 |
The KFF premiums assume existing stand-alone plan members do not switch. Deductible and out-of-pocket figures are Medicare benefit parameters.
Why Could Premiums Rise?
A key factor is the discontinuation of the federal Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after 2026. The temporary program provided financial support and capped qualifying premium increases for participating stand-alone plans.
Without that protection, some insurers have increased 2027 premiums substantially. Prices still vary by plan and geographic area, so staying enrolled does not guarantee an increase.
Why Do KFF and CMS Estimates Differ?
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) projects a much smaller increase, from $35.09 monthly in 2026 to approximately $36 in 2027.
KFF assumes existing enrollees keep their plans and uses June enrollment data. CMS uses a different projection based on September enrollment. Its published methodology does not fully explain the difference. Switching to cheaper options could bring the actual national average below KFF’s $51 estimate.
Who Is Most Affected?
Among 13.6 million stand-alone Part D enrollees without low-income subsidies, KFF estimates 10.4 million, or 76%, would face higher premiums without switching.
Within that group, 4.1 million currently have zero-premium stand-alone plans, but no zero-premium stand-alone plans are available before subsidies in 2027. Eligible people receiving extra help may still owe no premium.
Separately, approximately 1.2 million stand-alone plan enrollees are in coverage scheduled to end after 2026. They should check nonrenewal notices and select appropriate replacement coverage. These groups overlap and should not be added together.
What Other Drug Costs Are Changing?
The maximum standard deductible rises to $700, while the annual out-of-pocket threshold for covered Part D drugs increases to $2,400. Premiums do not count toward that threshold.
Copayments, coinsurance, formularies and preferred pharmacies can also change. A plan with a lower premium might still cost more overall if it charges more for medications.
How Can Beneficiaries Compare Plans?
Before December 7:
- Read the Annual Notice of Change for updated costs and drug coverage.
- Use Medicare.gov’s Plan Finder to compare plans using actual prescriptions and preferred pharmacies.
- Check total annual expenses, including premiums, deductibles and drug cost sharing.
- Review assistance, including Extra Help for people with limited income and resources.
- Check other coverage, such as employer or union benefits, before making a switch.
The Medicare Prescription Payment Plan can spread eligible drug costs across monthly payments but does not reduce total expenses. Anyone considering Medicare Advantage should also evaluate medical benefits and provider networks—not just drug premiums.
When Does Enrollment End?
Medicare open enrollment runs from October 15 through December 7, 2026. Changes generally take effect January 1, 2027. Visit Medicare.gov or call 1-800-MEDICARE for help. Joining a new drug plan generally ends existing drug coverage when the new coverage starts.
Conclusion
Medicare Part D Premiums could increase sharply for people who automatically retain their plans. Comparing medications, pharmacies and total costs before the deadline offers a practical way to avoid paying more than necessary.
